Top Nigerian economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, has projected that the naira will trade within N1,600–N1,650/$ in the near term. Rewane shared this insight during the June 2025 Lagos Business School Breakfast Session, where he delivered a mid-term economic review of the current administration.
According to Rewane, the Nigerian naira remains undervalued by approximately 26.82%, despite recent improvements in its performance. He noted that the U.S. dollar has weakened by 8.7% year-to-date, which may further support the naira’s upward trend.
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“The official and parallel market rates have converged more closely, now trading within a 1–3% margin — a major improvement from the 50–70% gap observed pre-reforms,” Rewane said.
“The spread is now within the N50 range, indicating the naira is now fairly priced and will stabilise at around N1,600–N1,650 per dollar.”
Inflation, Oil, and Economic Growth Outlook for June/July 2025
Rewane made several other economic forecasts for the June–July 2025 period:
- The inflation rate is expected to slightly decline to 23.15%
- Real GDP growth for Q1 2025 expected at 3.4%
- Brent crude oil price forecasted at $60–$63 per barrel, as OPEC+ increases output
- Nigeria’s oil production is projected to rise to 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd)
- Petrol (PMS) price may drop slightly to ₦845/litre, while diesel trades at ₦950/litre
- Corporate profitability in Q2 2025 is expected to improve, driven by lower inventory and better cost management
- FAAC allocation expected to remain flat at ₦1.6 trillion
- CBN Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) may be reduced by 50 basis points in the next MPC meeting
- FX Market: Parallel Market Pressure May Persist
Backing Rewane’s projection, analysts at Meristem Securities agreed that the naira is expected to remain relatively stable at the official exchange window, supported by Central Bank of Nigeria’s FX interventions and improved liquidity.
However, they warned that the parallel market may continue to experience pressure due to speculative demand and uncertainty in FX inflows. In May 2025, the naira appreciated slightly in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), while depreciating in the parallel market, widening the spread between both markets from N1.69/$ in April to N24.25/$ in May.
Meristem attributed this gap to rising demand pressure and speculative activities, making May the first a notable divergence in exchange rates since March 2025.
- Corporate Nigeria: Positive Outlook Amid Macro Reforms
On the corporate front, Rewane painted a positive outlook, highlighting:
- Strong revenue and profit growth across sectors
- Companies are adapting through local sourcing, digital transformation, and repricing
- Improved access to domestic credit, thanks to rising volumes of commercial papers
- Shielding from FX risks due to reduced foreign-denominated debt
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He added that investor sentiment is gradually improving, especially in sectors like banking, infrastructure, and energy, due to policy clarity, exchange rate reforms, and increased central bank transparency.
“Portfolio investors are slowly returning, encouraged by higher yields and macroeconomic stabilisation,” Rewane said.
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